Weekly investment insights

Weekly investment update

What's been happening in markets?

  • Equities: Equity markets were mixed last week. The FTSE 100 added +0.1%, with Emerging Markets adding +0.5%. The US gained +0.6% whilst Europe fell -0.5%. The UK benefited from the rise of oil prices and general commodities, which emphasised the European drop. US gains were caused by strong tech performance as well as a resilient economy, whilst EM gained on Asian tech and chip performance plus a weaker US Dollar.
  • Bonds: Bonds struggled globally, with UK gilts adding only +0.1%; 10yr UK yield currently 5.16%. US treasuries yield fell -0.1%, with 10yr US yield currently 4.78%. Investment Grade bonds fell -0.3% whilst High Yield added +0.3%.
  • Diversifiers: Gold fell -1.2% ($4,476), Brent oil gained +9.3% ($96), Bitcoin rallied, adding +2.6% to reach $79,898.

Key market drivers

  • Eurozone Inflation: Inflation hits 3.3% in Eurozone in August; up from 2.9% in July; ECB expected to raise rates to 2.5%; 6 months in a row where Eurozone inflation has exceeded 2% target.
  • US Jobs: US added 162,000 jobs in August vs an expectation of 56,000; driven by hospitality and education hiring; increases likelihood of rate hike; wages rose 3.1% in August.
  • Middle East Conflict: US and Iran exchange bombs for first time in a month; Israeli defence minister threatens “crippling” attacks on Iranian infrastructure; SoH remain shut.

Chart of the week

Technology shares have come under pressure in recent weeks as investors continue to question the timescale of the major technology companies monetising their enormous investments in data centres. However, this has not yet fully impacted investor sentiment, with fund managers remaining ‘risk-on’ (overweight equities, low cash levels).

This can be seen in the chart above, which shows the performance of the Magnificent 7 – that is, the major US tech stocks – and the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. We refer to this sub-index as the S&P 493. The performance is shown here in Sterling, with dividends reinvested, from the start of the year.

The Magnificent 7 are trading close to the 100 mark. Viewed since the start of the year, they have been extremely volatile but the combined return has been close to 0%. By contrast, the remaining 493 stocks have, on the whole, gained around 15% over the same period. And this shows precisely that the market is currently broadly supported: many investors feared that a price correction in the technology sector could become a problem for the broader market. However, that was not the case.

Investors have therefore not turned their backs on the stock market, but have instead shifted their investments into other, more traditional sectors. Incidentally, the UK is (to a certain extent) also benefiting from this: the FTSE 100 has delivered a performance of 8% since the start of the year thanks to energy, defence, financials and industrials.

Upcoming events

Monday 24th August
  • N/A
Tuesday:
  • US: CB Consumer Confidence (expected to fall to 90.3 from 90.8)
Wednesday:
  • US: PCE Price Index forecast to rise to 0.2% (0.1% previously)
  • US: Crude oil inventories (previously 4.41m barrels)
Thursday:
  • US: Jobless Claims expected to rise to 280k (from 206k)
Friday:
  • US: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole

This content is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investments can rise or fall in value, and you may receive less than you originally invested.

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