Weekly investment insights

Weekly investment update

What's been happening in markets?

  • Equities: Equity markets were mixed last week. The FTSE 100 added +0.1%, with Emerging Markets adding +1.2%. The US gained +1.2% whilst Europe fell -0.9%. The UK was supported from energy and healthcare names, whilst Europe dropped on the back of a sell-off in autos. US gains were linked to strong tech performance, whilst EM gained on Asian tech and chip performance.
  • Bonds: Bond performance was mixed, with UK gilts adding +0.9%; 10yr UK yield currently 5.24%. US treasuries yield fell -0.1%, with 10yr US yield currently 4.97%. Investment Grade bonds added +0.1% whilst High Yield added +0.7%.
  • Diversifiers: Gold fell -0.3% ($4,391), Brent oil dropped -4.4% ($96), Bitcoin rallied, adding +5.1% to reach $81,191.

Key market drivers

  • UK Interest Rates: The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% but crucially signaled that they are prepared to raise rates if high energy prices are sustained. Six members voted for hold and 3 for a hike.
  • Japanese Interest Rates: The BoJ hiked interest rate to 1.25% in a 7-2 vote; highest rates in 31 years; yen sold off after; Japanese finance minister noted that they ‘would not hesitate’ conducting further currency intervention if need be.
  • Middle East Conflict: Bombs continued to be fired; Saudi capital Riyadh targeted by Houthis; Saudi accused of carrying out 300 strikes over the last week; UN estimates over 100k people have been displaced by the conflict.

Chart of the week

Technology shares have come under pressure in recent weeks as investors continue to question the timescale of the major technology companies monetising their enormous investments in data centres. However, this has not yet fully impacted investor sentiment, with fund managers remaining ‘risk-on’ (overweight equities, low cash levels).

This can be seen in the chart above, which shows the performance of the Magnificent 7 – that is, the major US tech stocks – and the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. We refer to this sub-index as the S&P 493. The performance is shown here in Sterling, with dividends reinvested, from the start of the year.

The Magnificent 7 are trading close to the 100 mark. Viewed since the start of the year, they have been extremely volatile but the combined return has been close to 0%. By contrast, the remaining 493 stocks have, on the whole, gained around 15% over the same period. And this shows precisely that the market is currently broadly supported: many investors feared that a price correction in the technology sector could become a problem for the broader market. However, that was not the case.

Investors have therefore not turned their backs on the stock market, but have instead shifted their investments into other, more traditional sectors. Incidentally, the UK is (to a certain extent) also benefiting from this: the FTSE 100 has delivered a performance of 8% since the start of the year thanks to energy, defence, financials and industrials.

Upcoming events

Monday 21st September
  • N/A
Tuesday:
  • N/A
Wednesday:
  • US: Crude oil inventories
  • Global: Global manufacturing PMIs (forecast 53.4)
Thursday:
  • US: Initial jobless claims (forecast 201k)
  • Global: Trump meets Xi Jinping in Washington.
Friday:
  • N/A

This content is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investments can rise or fall in value, and you may receive less than you originally invested.

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